El Niño could become strongest on record. What it means for North Carolina - WRAL

A rapidly strengthening El Niño could become the strongest on record, reshaping North Carolina's outlook for both hurricane season and winter, according to WRAL Climate Change Reporter Liz McLaughlin.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday there is a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" El Niño forming during fall and winter, with nearly a 70% chance it reaches an intensity unmatched in records dating to 1950.
Forecasts suggest this event could reach a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of 2.5 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal, potentially surpassing the previous record of 2.5 degrees set during the 1982-83 event; July also logged NOAA's second-highest sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region.
El Niño is a naturally occurring Pacific climate pattern in which weakening equatorial trade winds allow warm water to shift eastward, altering atmospheric circulation and affecting weather thousands of miles away.
For the East Coast, the pattern typically increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, disrupting developing tropical systems; NOAA meteorologist Lindsey Long said this effect is already contributing to a relatively quiet August despite very warm Atlantic waters.
North Carolina tends to see wetter conditions during El Niño, and Long expects more winter rainfall—welcome relief after months of drought strained water supplies across the state.