Week 3 NFL score predictions, picks: Model reveals projections from 10,000 simulations - CBS Sports

CBS Sports/SportsLine's predictive model, which runs 10,000 simulations per game, released score projections for Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season, featuring 14 Sunday matchups.
Notable spreads include Texans vs. Colts (+2.5, total 42.5), Bengals vs. Steelers (+3.5, 42.5), Chargers vs. Bills (-7, 50.5) and Rams vs. Broncos (+2.5, 45.5) on "Sunday Night Football."
The highest total on the board is 52.5 for Ravens vs. Cowboys, a game being played in Brazil, while the lowest is 39.5 for Titans vs. Giants, where Tennessee OC Brian Daboll faces his former team; that number dropped four points after Giants QB Jaxson Dart injured his knee on Monday.
The model predicts the Los Angeles Rams edge the Denver Broncos 22-21 in Denver, making the Broncos (+2.5) the pick against the spread 54% of the time and the Over 45.5 hitting 60% of the time.
The Rams face significant injury issues, including losing pass rusher Myles Garrett (knee) for several weeks, and are still recovering from a 27-7 season-opening loss to the 49ers in Melbourne; the Broncos rebounded from a 31-10 loss at Kansas City with a 20-13 Week 2 win over Jacksonville, aided by Bo Nix completing 22 of 31 passes for 288 yards and a touchdown.
The model is described as up more than $7,000 for $100 players since inception, on a 53-41 run on top-rated picks dating to 2024, and has ranked among NFLPickWatch's top 10 in four of the past six years.