'We simply don't know' - JP Morgan struggling to forecast oil prices due to US-Iran war - BBC

JP Morgan issued a rare investor note admitting its analysts are struggling to forecast oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict, stating "we simply don't know how to model the endgame."
The bank had initially assumed the Trump administration would avoid crossing certain "economic red lines" — including oil above $100 a barrel, inflation reaching 4%, gasoline topping $5 a gallon, and 10-year government bond yields hitting 5% — expecting a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane by June.
Six months into the conflict, several of these thresholds have been breached: oil has surged back above $100 and bond yields have ticked over 5%, though gasoline remains below $5 and inflation has not reached 4%.
An oil and gas industry source told the BBC it was "unusual" for such a high-profile firm to release this kind of note, describing it as a reflection of the uncertainty surrounding the war and difficulty predicting President Trump's moves.
Trump said he did not expect the war to end until after November's US midterm elections, predicting oil prices would "tumble downward" afterward, though he suggested it might take longer than the midterms.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week for the first time in more than three years, signaling further increases could follow into 2027 to curb rising prices, as high oil costs drive up the cost of living heading into colder months.