Winners and losers of LeBron James' long free agency: Prediction markets cash in as NBA schedule makers wait - CBS Sports

News broke on June 30 that LeBron James would not return to the Los Angeles Lakers, making him a free agent, and nearly a month later he still hasn't chosen a team or signaled when he will.
The prolonged saga has kept the NBA near the top of the news cycle during a slow summer period, overshadowing the Kawhi Leonard investigation, which has a major trade on hold and could prove a bigger story if the Raptors miss out on him.
Prediction markets have emerged as clear winners, with more than $210 million wagered on James' next team at Kalshi and just under $40 million at Polymarket, a total that keeps climbing as his decision drags on.
The Miami Heat's social media team accidentally posted a scheduled introductory press conference video on their YouTube channel, dated July 27, which went viral and dramatically shifted the betting odds despite the team calling it a mistake.
Before the leak, the Cleveland Cavaliers led at Kalshi with 38% of bets and Miami followed at 36%, but afterward Miami surged to a 49% favorite while Cleveland fell to 26%.
The Golden State Warriors, who opened July as a 46% favorite to sign James, have faded to also-ran status with just 17% of wagers, illustrating how sharply sentiment has swung during the extended free agency.